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Category: Hazards (Page 1 of 4)

Zombie Preparedness: A Communication Strategy for Emergency Preparedness

For this Halloween, CPJ is bringing back a spooky article from 2017 on the value of zombie preparedness. 

Zombies have become a fixture in literary and cinematic culture over the past century. The list of on-screen zombie productions is extensive, ranging from White Zombie in 1932 and Night of the Living Dead in 1968, to this year’s Patient Z and dozens of others in between. In 2016, Netflix boasted a buffet of 19 zombie-themed shows to satiate their viewers’ appetite for the undead. Yet over the past decade, zombies have broken free of their cinematic chains. Runners can now have their zombie fix on-the-go, with zombie-themed races in which costumed zombies chase runners, or via zombie running apps. For the extreme among us, there are even zombie survival camps: “the ultimate weekend apocalypse adventure.”

The cultural capital of zombies has not gone unnoticed. Since 2011, the threat of a zombie outbreak has been used in a more unexpected way: as a communication strategy for emergency preparedness. In response to low engagement in previous emergency preparedness campaigns, in May 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) opted for a creative thematic pivot in their preparedness communication. And so, Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse was born. This campaign first manifested as a humorous blog post detailing key steps to take in the event of a zombie apocalypse,1 such as building an emergency kit and developing a family emergency plan.2 The CDC’s goals for this campaign were to widen the reach of emergency preparedness awareness materials and draw in younger audiences.

A quick glance at the post’s engagement metrics renders their strategy an unequivocal success; the post received unparalleled traffic, crashing the blog platform within nine minutes of the tweet directing viewers to the blog. The campaign was covered extensively by media outlets for more than a year following the original blog post. By 2013, two years after the original posting date, the post had garnered approximately 1,332% more views than average posts on the CDC Public Health Matters Blog, and 1,233 comments, compared to the average of five comments. The CDC’s social media followers across various platforms also grew significantly in response.3 Moreover, the immense popularity of the post led the CDC to develop a host of Zombie Preparedness materials, including a dedicated blog, posters, lesson plans for teachers, and even a graphic novella.

CDC tweet
The CDC’s extensively shared and liked tweet referencing the Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse campaign. Photo Credit: CDC’s Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (@CDCemergency).
blog post CDC1
Excerpt from original Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse blog post (May 16, 2011) on CDC’s Public Health Matters Blog. Photo Credit: CDC Public Health Matters Blog.

Since 2011, other organizations in cities across the country have followed the CDC’s creative lead, and further capitalized on the Halloween season to launch preparedness education and trainings with a zombie theme. For example, REI offers a Zombie Preparedness – Surviving a Zombie Apocalypse workshop, which covers important survival strategies adequate for any disaster. From Zombie Scavenger Hunts in Anchorage, Alaska (2012) to Zombie Artwalks in Abilene, Texas (this month), zombie preparedness has consistently captivated geographically diverse audiences and has catalyzed unique partnerships around emergency preparedness.  

Anchorage - scavenger hunt
Anchorage’s haunted zombie scavenger hunt is fun for the whole family. Photo Credit: Anchorage Public Library.

Perhaps more interesting, however, is the adoption of zombie preparedness at the state level. Each October since 2014, Governor of Kansas Sam Brownback signs a proclamation declaring October “Zombie Preparedness Month.” This tradition, spearheaded by the Kansas Division of Emergency Management echoes the sentiment of the CDC’s campaign, insisting that “if you’re prepared for zombies, you’re prepared for anything.”Furthermore, in February of 2017, the state House of Illinois passed House Resolution 0030 declaring October “Zombie Preparedness Month.” This law “urges all Illinoisans to educate themselves about natural disasters and take steps to create a stockpile of food, water, and other emergency supplies that can last up to 72 hours.”5

Kansas Division of Emergency Management fb
Kansas Division of Emergency Management employing their own zombie preparedness campaign on Facebook earlier this month. Photo Credit: Kansas Division of Emergency Management.

Although the CDC’s novel campaign has certainly been effective in garnering significant attention and replication across the country, measuring the extent to which this messaging campaign led to increased actual emergency preparedness actions is more difficult to quantify. A 2015 study conducted by PhD students at the School of Communication at Loyola University Chicago investigated this question by administering an online survey about emergency preparedness to two groups of undergraduates: one previously exposed to Preparedness 101 Zombie Apocalypse, and the other exposed to CDC’s traditional preparedness messaging campaigns. Their findings indicate that the zombie material did not have significant impacts on their performance on the preparedness survey compared to the traditional messaging group.6

Even with these results, there is clear value in zombie preparedness, beyond the laughs. According to a national survey conducted in 2016 by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, almost two-thirds of US households lack sufficient emergency plans. More than 30% of US households with kids are unaware of their school evacuation plans, and over 40% lack understanding about their child’s evacuation location in the case of an emergency.Zombie preparedness can only help this, especially due to its potential for youth education. Additionally, true to both their nature and their historical staying power in popular culture, zombies aren’t likely to go away anytime soon. Bundling zombies with preparedness education every October is nothing but good (and perhaps spooky) news for emergency preparedness – planners, public health advocates, and hazard mitigation experts take note.

FEMA. 2012. “Zombie Preparedness: Effective Practices in Promoting Disaster Preparedness,” Webinar Transcript. https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1913-25045-3339/20130430_final_zombie_preparedness_transcript.pdf

2 Khan, Ali S. 2011.“Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse,” CDC Public Health Matters Blog, May 11. https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2011/05/preparedness-101-zombie-apocalypse/  

Kruvand, Marjorie and Maggie Silver. 2013. “Zombies Gone Viral: How a Fictional Zombie Invasion Helped CDC Promote Emergency Preparedness” Case Studies in Strategic Communication. http://cssc.uscannenberg.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/v2art3.pdf

Barber, Elizabeth. 2014. “Kansas Will be Prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse.” Time, September 24. http://time.com/3424392/kansas-zombie-preparedness-month-sam-brownback-natural-disasters/   

Illinois General Assembly. 2017. “Bill Status of HR0030. http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus.asp?DocTypeID=HR&DocNum=30&GAID=14&SessionID=91&LegID=99787

6 Kruvand, M and FB Bryant. 2015. “Zombie Apocalypse: Can the Undead Teach the Living How to Survive an Emergency?” Public Health Reports. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26556937

7 National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. 2016. “Children in Disasters: Do Americans Feel Prepared? A National Survey.” National Center on Disaster Preparedness Research Briefs. https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/catalog/ac:194073  

Featured image: A zombie flashmob (fleshmob) takes on London in 2007. Photo Credit: CGP Grey via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

About the Author: Margaret Keener is a first year master’s student in the Department of City and Regional Planning, focusing on land use and environmental planning. She is particularly interested in resilience and climate change adaptation. Prior to UNC, Margaret worked as a graphic designer for ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. Outside of class, Margaret enjoys listening to podcasts while running, playing outdoor team sports, and exploring new places on foot.

 Finding Pan

By Ian Concannon

This spring, I traveled to southwest Florida where my namesake hurricane had made its explosive landfall the previous October. In June, I navigated life along with millions of others under the heavy haze of forest fire smoke blown over New England from Canada. Most recently, violent floods washed through several towns in southern Vermont, where I’ve lived for several months cumulatively since graduating from college in 2018. I am now training as a climate planner in graduate school, where my work seeks to develop resilience at a public transit agency. Yet even treading repeatedly within the direct footprint of climate change, I cannot shake a nagging sense of incompleteness—that I have somehow come no closer to comprehending the full forces at play.

Extreme weather may serve as evidence of climate change, but it is only a snapshot of a larger process. Climate change is as much an undermining of the way we make sense of the world as it is a self-contained object as such—more epoch than event. Climate change is a sunburn, an acid ocean, an expanse of algae, a burn scar, a mutated pathogen. It is the afterlife of acts committed generations ago and it never seems to arrive. Its essence can never be grasped directly. Strange weather is only the shadow cast by this phantom.

Attempting to squeeze a treatment of climate change into the bounds of ordinary discussion only obscures its true nature. Instead, I suggest we dim the lights and dream…


Pan has always been an old god, even when the ancient Greeks learned of him from the Arcadian mountain tribes. Secluded from view, he preferred to roam the woodland hills, tending livestock and hunting game. Unlike his more refined relatives Artemis or Hermes, Pan presented a distinctly bestial figure, pursuing his favored nymphs and sowing panic in foes. Offensive and alluring, powerful and marginalized, he brought together associations of fertility, replenishment, music, vengeance, chaos, violation, and mortality. Pan continues to embody these painful contradictions of the natural world.

Much as Pan could multiply into a swarm, his image has taken many forms in different settings since antiquity. A quick survey includes the Wiccan horned god as well as the faun from Guillermo Del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth, leering at the borderlands of the underworld. In Hayao Miyazaki’s Princess Mononoke, a deer god with a human face silently patrols the forest depths, taking and restoring life in equal measure with each stride. Pan’s offspring remain a penetrating reminder of a tangled rift lurking beyond the scope of civilized life.

One feature separating Pan from the rest of the Greek Pantheon is his mortality, documented first under the reign of the Roman emperor Tiberius following the birth of Christ. More recent authors associate Pan’s death with the triumph of modernity:

Then keep the tomb of Helice,
Thine olive-woods, thy vine-clad wold,
And what remains to us of thee?

Though many an unsung elegy
Sleeps in the reeds our rivers hold,
O goat-foot God of Arcady!
Ah, what remains to us of thee?

Oscar Wilde[1]

My contribution here is to suggest that the terror and humility we know as a result of the turmoil of climate change reveal the continued presence of larger-than-life demigods. When we spot wayward migrations, upend our routines, abandon our homes, or savor an unseasonably warm winter evening: this is Pan’s work. To know this is to restore the generative agency of natural forces that were thought to be extinguished long ago. This time, though, Pan is back in ghost form—an existence denied by most, unimpressed by our attempts to appease. The question becomes: what would it mean to organize ourselves in space holding closely to this understanding?

One answer comes to us from ecological systems theory. As introduced by ecologists C.S. Holling and Lance Gunderson, Panarchy is a concept that invokes both an antidote to hierarchy and a nod to Pan’s power, in which the cycles of a system are tied together across spatial and temporal scales to describe the system’s response to stimuli. This approach honors the changes that naturally occur across such assemblages while suggesting interventions that uphold beneficial forms of resilience.

It may be worth grounding this theory in the case of a lake. Over the course of a year, this lake’s surface area, depth, temperature, nutrient composition and biomass content will all vary. However, these relatively rapid cycles, such as freeze dates in the winter, higher flow rates in the spring, or phytoplankton blooms in the summer, occur in such a way as to maintain the water body’s capacity for certain essential functions. This lake also depends on larger resource flows, such as tributary inflow volumes and the spread of species from other sources. These are in turn governed by even larger economic and climatic processes, like mass fertilizer application, anthropogenic demand for water, and planetary temperature trends. While periods of expansion, stability, collapse, and renewal are to be expected, Panarchy theory suggests that a resilient system will trend back towards its “domain of attraction” until conditions dictate otherwise; a lake will remain a lake, rather than an anoxic puddle or golf course.[2]

Given these constant exchanges, resilience is not equivalent to stability. Instead, resilience implies that local adaptive cycles are able to integrate information from the slower cycles surrounding them. When conditions change abruptly, ecosystem functions will initially degrade before adapting in such a way that the external changes become internalized. A lake may dry up entirely if enough feedback pushes it in that direction, but it may still retain its status as a productive system, albeit in a new state. What matters is that larger grounding conditions do not shift so fast as to undermine the ability of smaller, more local systems to maintain their adaptive capacity.

With Ghost Pan running loose, this is exactly what we see. Supercharged with two hundred years of fossil fuel energy and the global connectivity of capitalism, changes that might otherwise have taken thousands or millions of years can now proliferate in a matter of decades, if not faster. Circulating at such speed and altitude, these shifts fail to impart a coherent message on the systems they contain. Our lake, industry, or city of cannot meet these new demands by surrounding their existing structure in new fortifications. Their internal logic must move from preservation to pliability.

Multiple transportation modes overlay a shored-up seawall atop the tidal Mystic River in Somerville, MA. These projects bring together many forms of resilience, from the health of the river to public waterfront access and the integrity of engineered infrastructure.

In my efforts to embed climate resilience across a large urban transportation system, this clash of priorities is readily apparent. After decades of divestment, public transit remains an economic lifeline for tens of millions in North America and is understood as increasingly crucial to weaning cities of their dependence on fossil fuels. Simultaneously, its operations tend to be welded in place by predetermined land use and governance regimes. More specific challenges to the climate resilience of transit include:

  • Limited oversight of land, often along narrow Rights-of-Way. In the Northeastern United States, these Rights-of-Way are commonly laid in former streambeds or reclaimed wetlands.
  • Dependence on volatile supply chains for specialized equipment.
  • Few formal coordination avenues to plan with surrounding landowners and policymakers, like municipalities or residents.
  • Specialized labor practices that delay responses to emergent needs, such as maintaining drainage infrastructure vs. clearing roads or repairing transit vehicles.
    • Unionized labor may be paired with short-term private contracts in which institutional knowledge is lost from year to year.
  • Project management processes that prioritize condition or political expedience over climate vulnerability.
  • Nested networks of aging communications, electrical, and mechanical infrastructure in which small disruptions set off cascading effects across the rest of the system.
  • Lagging federal and state requirements that promote but do not require climate resilience standards.

Transit authorities have few examples to guide how to successfully climate-proof tens of billions of dollars of assets. Adaptation strategies mostly involve selective elevation, installing flood walls, substituting rapid transit for buses, and reducing service during high-risk weather events. Even pursued to their fullest extent, these resilience measures correspond to a vision of the future in which people continue to use transit infrastructure much as they do now, albeit with critical elements elevated or clad in corrosion-resistant materials.

A “panarchic” approach to this issue recognizes the inseparability of transportation from its larger setting. Even as transit moves to meet the inevitability of direct climate change exposures such as extreme heat or stormwater flooding, the surrounding city will also be transforming. Economic changes may induce new demand away from traditional commuting destinations, while new residential patterns may bolster or undercut the existing labor force. Newly widespread forms of data will likely make climate modeling more accurate, even as the weather itself becomes more erratic. Longstanding political assumptions baked into the American planning context may begin to unravel, opening or foreclosing instruments by which local government rises to meet the challenges of environmental change.

Far from spaces of disembodied circulation, transit exerts a visceral influence on its physical surroundings. The pressures of climate change reconfigure the ways in which these spaces are demarcated, contested, and made ready for new uses. As planners, we occupy a unique position that both bears witness to the continued influence of historical actors and formulates new models by which future generations may carry out their own lives. Pan’s presence signals a warning to that tradition of planners who understand themselves as technicians erecting monumental cities in defiance of the surrounding environment. Let’s hope we are able to listen.


[1] Oscar Wilde, “Pan,” in Poems by Oscar Wilde, edited by Robert Ross. Retrieved at Project Gutenberg, https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1057/1057-h/1057-h.htm.

[2] Holling, Crawford Stanley, and Lance H. Gunderson. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2002.

About the Author:  Ian Concannon is an aspiring climate planner and master’s student at Tufts University’s Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning, with a B.A. in History from Williams College. His recent projects have involved performing outreach in support of disaster preparedness, evaluating road network resilience for an environmental engineering firm, and assessing public transit performance when exposed to coastal storms. He is especially interested in finding ways to coordinate across local policymaking bodies in support of resilient systems change. When he’s not tinkering with maps, Ian can be found on trail runs or backpacking loops throughout New England.

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Featured image courtesy of Ian Concannon

Assessing Extreme Weather and Climate Impacts on Public Health Practitioners

Last summer, Emily Gvino (MCRP and MPH 2021 alumna), teamed up with Dr. Ferdouz Cochran to conduct a needs assessment of public health practitioners across the southeastern United States to understand the impact of extreme weather and climate events in their work. With support from Carolina Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), the duo surveyed 108 professionals from emergency management and disaster services, healthcare coalitions, hospital or clinical based organizations, government-based public health agencies, and other community organizations.

The survey found that public health stakeholders are concerned about not just hurricanes, but also heavy rain, prolonged rain events, and heat. Funding, political climate, and organizational leadership are the main barriers to addressing the health impacts of climate change. Participants were also very concerned about power and infrastructure failures. Participants are greatly concerned about the health impacts of heat but less frequently utilize wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in their work. WBGT is different from the commonly known heat index as it accounts for “temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover (solar radiation)” in direct sunlight.[1]

A preview of the report’s findings can be found below, while the full report can be accessed on the CISA website.

Concern about Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Participants were very concerned about heavy rain, prolonged rain, heat, and hurricanes. Participants across all organization types were more concerned about heavy rain events (that may lead to flash flooding events) compared to prolonged periods of rain or flood events themselves. Participants were not at all concerned about fog and generally only somewhat concerned about drought, tornadoes, wildfire, and wind. Healthcare coalitions and emergency management—which operate on local and regional scales—are very concerned about localized impacts of winter weather, which is a lesser concern for other organizations that may operate on a larger scale. Non-profit and community organizations expressed a higher level of concern across flood-related hazards, heat, hurricanes, and storms. Those working in hospital- or clinical-based settings (primarily based in North Carolina) were very concerned about heat and prolonged rain.

The health risks of extreme heat events, from the question, “In your role, which of the following individual-level health risks of excessive heat concern you?”

The health risks of extreme heat events, from the question, “In your role, which of the following individual-level health risks of excessive heat concern you?”

Information and Tools

Despite concern about the health impacts of heat, survey participants less frequently use wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in their work—a widely accepted and promoted measure of heat stress. The vast majority of respondents had not heard of WBGT and represent a key demographic that could benefit from access to more information, awareness, and tools regarding WBGT for their work, in comparison to relying on ambient temperatures alone. Across all types of extreme weather and climate events, participants trust the National Weather Service over other information sources, such as other phone apps, national TV stations such as the weather channel, or other web-based sources, such as Weather Underground. When asked to share what sources of information they are lacking in their current work, participants identified real-time phone and web alerts, showcasing opportunities here for improved climate communication.

In addition, public health stakeholders expressed interest in applying future climate projections and priority mapping to their current work. Based on these results, there may be opportunities for increased communication about the health risks of extreme heat and climate events for those in the public health and medical fields. For example, when it comes to heart attacks as a result of winter weather events, there was a disconnect between emergency management, who were very concerned about heart attacks, and those working in hospital or clinical settings, who were mostly concerned about car accidents due to winter weather events. Further research could explore this disconnect between different types of public health stakeholders.

Local Capacity and Leadership Building

Across all types of organizations, survey participants expressed that local levels of leadership should be responsible for preparing for extreme weather and climate events. However, survey participants shared that funding, political climate, and leadership are the most prominent barriers to action regarding addressing extreme weather and climate events in their work. Participants also expressed high levels of concern about power and infrastructure failures and access to healthcare facilities, which may require more regional capacity building and leadership across stakeholder groups. The majority of participants shared that their organizations had an emergency preparedness plan, and over half of these respondents had support the preparation of the plan. While participants reported Hazard Vulnerability Assessments (HVA) were fairly common at their organizations, less than one-third of respondents said that an HVA was prepared annually. Less than half of survey participants and their associated organizations are involved in a healthcare coalition. This summary reports our detailed findings across the top three extreme weather and climate events concerning public health stakeholders: extreme heat, winter weather, and flooding.

A full version of the CISA Public Health Needs Assessment: Summary Report is now available online through the CISA Library. If you’d like to learn more about this project, please contact Emily Gvino ’21.


[1] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, WetBulb Globe Temperature


By Emily Gvino, MCRP/MPH ’21

Featured image: Cows who survived Hurricane Florence, stranded on a porch, surrounded by flood waters in North Carolina. Courtesy of Jo-Anne McArthur, Unsplash

History Repeats Itself: How to Help Southern Louisiana

By Pierce Holloway, CPJ Editor-In-Chief & Emma Vinella-Brusher, Angles Managing Editor

On August 29th, Category 4 Hurricane Ida struck the state of Louisiana. Described by Governor John Bel Edwards as “the strongest storm to hit anywhere in the state since the 1850s,” the storm’s center passed within 18 miles of downtown New Orleans causing tremendous damage to the area.[i] Within hours over 560,000 households were without power, and this has worsened to over 826,000 across the state as of the writing of this article.[ii] These outages come during the late summer heat, when the inability to use air conditioning, dry clothes, and keep food fresh can rapidly lead to unhealthy living conditions and increased safety concerns.

The Same Story, 16 Years Later

Eerily, Hurricane Ida passed through New Orleans 16 years to the day of Hurricane Katrina. This timing conjures visceral memories of the most costly hurricane in U.S. history, in an area still recovering from the storm’s damage. While it is easy to draw comparisons between these two storms, there are important differences to note:

  • Storm Intensity: Hurricane Ida struck Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane with a storm diameter of 414 miles. Though Katrina was only classified as Category 3, it reached a diameter of nearly 680 miles, with 28 foot storm surges and wind speeds of 125 mph. Current Ida data finds 150 mph sustained winds and 8-10 foot storm surges, though these may increase as more information is collected.
  • Damage: While it is still too early to estimate the total damage and costs associated with Ida, current predictions are upwards of $15-20 Billion in insured losses.[iii] This is compared to the $176.5 Billion in damages estimated from Hurricane Katrina.[iv] Much of the 2005 damage was caused by levees breaking within the city of New Orleans; fortunately it appears that the levees have been hardened and expanded enough since that they held during Ida.
  • Deaths: Thus far at least 60 deaths have been attributed to Hurricane Ida’s wake across six states, though sadly this number is expected to rise as state officials gather additional information.[v] This compares to the over 1,800 deaths associated with Katrina.[vi] However it is important to note that there is always uncertainty surrounding accurately counting storm-related deaths, as the effects are not always immediate.
  • Health Impacts: Thousands if not millions are being displaced due to flooding and wind damages, which makes accessing needed medication and services a challenge. Moreover, experiencing the impacts of hurricanes has been shown to lead to mental disorders among previously healthy individuals while also compounding the detrimental effects of pre-existing mental health disorders.[vii]
A person crosses the street during Hurricane Ida on August 29, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Photo by: Brandon Bell, Getty Images

What Does “Recovery” Look Like?

When comparing these two severe storms, one important question comes to mind: Have New Orleans and other surrounding communities recovered since Katrina? While there are many useful metrics for assessing recovering, employment levels can provide a quick snapshot. In July 2005, just before Hurricane Katrina, the New Orleans area had around 625,000 jobs. In the months following nearly 185,000 jobs were lost as residents fled the area, and many of these jobs never returned. Since Katrina, the state has also struggled with the impacts of the 2007-2009 recession and COVID-19 among other more local obstacles. The combination of each of these has hamstrung a heavily tourist dependent economy, impacting the resilience and ability of communities to recover. As of July 2021 New Orleans had recovered to around 530,000 jobs, still less than 15% of pre-Katrina levels, while employment nation-wide has risen 9% since this time. Hurricane Ida is yet another significant setback in the region’s recovery process.

The effects of Hurricane Ida have been felt well beyond Louisiana as well, with severe damages stretching from the Gulf Coast up into the Northeast. Unfortunately, Ida’s vast destruction may be close to the new normal we can expect for tropical cyclones.While climate models differ in the specifics, there is a growing consensus that storms are projected to significantly intensify as climate change continues.[viii],[ix] Massive infrastructure adaptation is needed across the U.S. to mitigate future storm damages, coupled with the public health resources to ensure vulnerable populations can be protected and well-served.[x]

Organizations to Support During this Time:


[i] Staff, W. (2021, August 28). Hurricane Ida will be ‘strongest storm’ to hit Louisiana since 1850s, governor warns. WAFB.

[ii] PowerOutage.US. Power Outages: Louisiana.

[iii] Otani, A. (2021, August 31). Firms Estimate Hurricane Ida Could Cause Over $15 Billion in Insured Losses. Wall Street Journal.

[iv] Blake, E. S., Landsea, C. W., & Gibney, E. J. (2011). NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-6. 49.

[v] Paúl, M.L. et al. (2021, September 2). Deaths climb to at least 44 from Northeast floods caused by Hurricane Ida’s remnants. (2021, September 2). Washington Post.

[vi] Bialik, C. (2015, August 26). We Still Don’t Know How Many People Died Because Of Katrina. FiveThirtyEight.

[vii] Espinel, Z. et al. (2019). Forecast: Increasing Mental Health Consequences From Atlantic Hurricanes Throughout the 21st Century. Psychiatric Services, 70(12), 1165–1167.

[viii] Biasutti, M. et al. (2012). Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean. Climatic Change 112, 819–845.

[ix] Ting, M. et al. (2019). Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast. Scientific Reports 9, 7795.

[x] Petkova, E. P. et al. (2015). Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12(8), 9342–9356.


Pierce Holloway is a second-year master’s student at the Department of City and Regional Planning with a focus on Climate Change Adaptation. Before coming to Chapel Hill he worked as a geospatial analyst for Urban3, working on visualizing economic productivity of communities and states. Through his coursework he hopes to explore the nexus between adaptation for climate change and community equitability. In his free time, he enjoys long bike rides, trail running, and any excuse to play outside. 

Emma Vinella-Brusher is a second-year dual degree Master’s student in City and Regional Planning and Public Health interested in equity, mobility, and food security. Born and raised in Oakland, CA, she received her undergraduate degree in Environmental Studies from Carleton College before spending four years at the U.S. Department of Transportation in Cambridge, MA. In her free time, Emma enjoys running, bike rides, live music, and laughing at her own jokes.


Featured image courtesy of Scott Olson, Getty Images

How to Help Texans

Winter Storm Uri brought freezing temperatures to the state of Texas and power outages to millions. Now, several days later, nearly a half-million residents remain without electricity and struggle to stay warm and survive the harsh conditions. Many have pointed to how the blackouts have disproportionately affected already vulnerable populations, and night photos seem to highlight the physicality of the divide.

The Houston Skyline. Photo Credit: ABC13 Houston

Organizations across Texas are working to provide the necessary services to support residents in need. In these challenging times, even those of us who are far away can still help. Here are some organizations and resources:

Feed the People Dallas Mutual Aid

CrowdSource Rescue

Austin Mutual Aid

Sunrise Homeless Navigation Center

Para Mi Gente Mutual Aid

Here for a more comprehensive list


Cover image courtesy of Ron Jenkins via Forbes.com

Post by Siobhan Nelson, Angles Managing Editor

Volume 45 of the Carolina Planning Journal: Hazards in the Southeastern United States

Volume 45 of the Carolina Planning Journal is now available to read online. Learn more about it below!


Volume 45 of the Carolina Planning Journal, titled Hazards in the Southeastern United States, considers how planners can prepare for natural disasters in the near and distant future. The topic is timely given the significant impacts and costs of recent natural hazard events in our backyard following Hurricanes Florence and a devastating 2017 hurricane season. 

Environmental scientists and climate change specialists project that instances of million dollar natural disasters will increase over the next decade. As their communities face greater human and financial impacts from climate change and natural disasters, planners are considering how to respond in terms of preparedness, recovery, and long-term resilience. Authors in this volume discuss the challenges and best practices surrounding public participation, collaboration, equitable response, and available tools within the natural disasters context.

This edition begins by exploring existing tools to support adaptation and resilience. Matt Stern, MCRP ‘19, considers the equitability and effectiveness of popular mechanisms to finance climate change adaptation and resilience. Outlining the shortcomings of existing options, he presents a new finance tool that aims to maximize equity and minimize vulnerability. Phil BerkeJaimie Masterson, AICP, Matthew Malecha, and Siyu Yu, AICP, discuss the application of the Resilience Scorecard as a tool to measure whether mitigation plans are well integrated and actionable. The article turns to the program’s pilot community of Norfolk, Virginia as an example. 

Many communities grapple with developing successful recovery and adaptation plans. Christian Kamrath, MCRP ‘18, CFM, and Holly White, AICP, CFM turn to the local case study of Nags Head, North Carolina to evaluate the role of public participation in local adaptation planning utilizing both local and state-initiated processes. Michelle BohrsonApril Geruso, and Kayla Slater offer the case study of private sector collaboration in Panama City. This case similarly identifies public engagement as essential to successful plan development.

Another set of articles also grapple with ideas of public engagement as a tool to build capacity. Laura Bray, Olivia Vilá, Bethany Cutts, Margaret Crites, Hannah Goins, Sallie McLean, Nathan McMenamin, David Lowry, Mac Legerton, and Angela Harris present a case study of public engagement in Robeson County, post-Hurricane Matthew, as a method of increasing community capacity and environmental justice as participants come to better understand personal risks that result from flooding. Shaleen Miller discusses global collaborations between organizations like botanical gardens in the wake of Hurricane Maria as examples of unconventional knowledge sharing. 

The final articles consider the vulnerability and equity of response networks. Ryan Scott purports that military bases are vulnerable to sea level rise. Given that they are essential to emergency response during disaster events, he provides recommendations to protect both installations themselves and the people associated with them. Carlee Purdum discusses the exploitative nature of using incarcerated people, receiving insufficient compensation, as a cheap alternative to wildland firefighters.

As always, this volume includes an overview of Master’s Projects from 2019, a year-in-review newsletter from the halls of New East, and book reviews by current students.

The cover image by photographer Joseph Hoffheimer, MCRP ‘20, captures the Mile High Swinging Bridge on Grandfather Mountain in North Carolina. Much like the bridge, this volume offers guidance to help us navigate what can feel like an uncertain, frightening future. The era of climate change presents a plethora of new planning challenges, and these authors remind us not only of the necessity to change but also of our remarkable capacity to adapt. 

Read the full journal online here!

From the CPJ Archives: Steps Towards Recovery – An Integrated Platform for Disaster Recovery Planning, Management, and Tracking

This week we’re sharing an article that originally appeared in Volume 42 of the Carolina Planning Journal back in 2017. The theme of that edition was Re:(Anything) from Revitalization to Resilience. This volume sought to understand the convergent and contradictory meanings behind the prefix ‘re-‘. Articles covered diverse topics like revitalization, resiliency, and reinvestment. In this piece, Jennifer Horney and Katie Kirsch, both of Texas A&M at the time, presented the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool, a guide for local officials to use to facilitate a careful and deliberative recovery process. With everything going on in the world today, we can’t forget that hurricane and wildfire season will be upon us soon and that these kind of tools remain critically important to ensure effective and equitable recovery, particularly in an era of COVID-19.

Volume 42 and other back issues of the Journal can be found on our website at http://carolinaplanning.unc.edu/.


By Katie Kirsch (MS) and Jennifer Horney (PhD, MPH)

The persistent movement of people and economic development to highly vulnerable regions, such as the U.S. Southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, has dominated growth in disaster losses for the past 50 years (Pielke et al. 2008). The escalation of economic losses resulting from natural disasters in the U.S. rising faster than either overall population or gross national product —- highlights the critical need for more effective, and resilience building, strategies for disaster recovery (Gall, Borden, Emrich and Cutter 2011). While the inherent geographic vulnerabilities of a coastal community cannot be modified, pre-disaster recovery planning has been shown to significantly improve post-event recovery outcomes (Zukowski 2014). After a disaster and during a time of high stress and uncertainty, pressure to make decisions and allocate funds to quicken recovery results in decisions that may be made with little time for deliberation or data gathering (Olshansky and Johnson 2010). In the absence of pre-disaster planning for recovery, insufficient recovery management can result in a failure to restore or improve upon pre-disaster conditions (Smith and Wenger 2006). 

At the federal level, the Disaster Mitigation Act requires state and local governments to adopt hazard mitigation plans as a condition of receiving certain forms of federal disaster assistance (Disaster Mitigation Act 2000). Despite the recognized benefits of pre-disaster recovery planning, no such federal requirement exists for recovery plans. For this and other reasons, the development of high quality disaster recovery plans has lagged at both the state and local levels with some notable exceptions (U.S. Government Accountability Office 2016; Berke et al. 2014). The City of Los Angeles, California, created a Recovery and Reconstruction plan in 1987, several years before the 1994 Northridge Earthquake (City of Los Angeles Emergency Operations Organization 1994). Florida enacted legislation in 2008 requiring all local governments to adopt pre-disaster recovery plans either as a component of the local comprehensive plan or as a stand-alone document. The North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act has required the adoption of recovery elements in land use plans in coastal counties since the late 1990s, and community-engaged post-disaster recovery planning processes in Louisiana following Hurricane Katrina led to the adoption of a regional recovery plan (Norton 2005; Louisiana Speaks 2007). However, mandates for recovery planning that are put in place without funding support, clear standards, and strong oversight have generally resulted in either low levels of compliance or low quality plans.

A core set of plan quality principles provide a measurable, adaptable, and sufficient way to form a holistic evaluation of a community (Berke et al. 2014). Since established plan quality principles may not be fully suited for the development and evaluation of recovery plans, researchers have sought to define indicators or metrics to measure and better understand recovery trajectory in disaster affected communities (Chang 2010; Cutter, Burton, and Emrich 2010; Dwyer and Horney 2014; Horney et al. 2016; Jordan and Javernick-Will 2014; Norris et al. 2008). 

Federal guidance has been offered as well. The National Disaster Recovery Framework (NDRF) was developed to guide local, state, and federal planning activities, core capabilities, and operational structures in preparation for and in the aftermath of disaster events (U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2016). The core capabilities described in the NDRF include planning, public information and warning, operational coordination, economic recovery, health and social services, housing, infrastructure systems, and natural and cultural resources (U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2016). Continuous monitoring and evaluation is required to determine the progress of a community in becoming proficient in these capabilities. However, capacity of local governments to monitor the multiple domains of a community may be impeded given that disaster recovery is subject to the compression of multiple types of redevelopment and recovery activities into a shortened post-disaster time period (Olshansky, Hopkins, and Johnson 2012). Therefore, resources that streamline the process of data collection and analysis are needed to eliminate this burden and allow decision-makers to more efficiently allocate their time to the benefit of the whole community.

The Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool

Recovery from disasters is a core responsibility for federal, state, and local governments. Systematic means of measuring the disaster recovery process across events and over time are needed to plan for and recover from disasters. Developed as part of the former Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence (now known as the Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool (www.trackyourrecovery.org) was created to provide a free, secure, web-based disaster recovery management platform for local governments and decision-makers. 

Metric Development and Application

The monitoring function of the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool consists of eighty-four metrics, organized within four4 themes (financial, process, public sector, and social) and ten focus areas derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Recovery Support Functions (RSFs) and core capabilities (U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2016). These metrics include both user-entered data (n=49) and data that are automatically populated from publically available sources (e.g., the American Community Survey, County Business Patterns, Disaster Declarations Summaries) across multiple years (n=35). These metrics were developed through a process that included: 1) a systematic review of the literature; 2) a content review of eighty-seven pre-disaster recovery plans developed by U.S. Gulf Coast and U.S. Atlantic counties and municipalities; 3) case studies of disaster affected communities including Hoboken, New Jersey and New Hanover County, North Carolina; 4) twenty-one key informant interviews; 5) two focus groups with ten experts; and 6) a case study of six disaster-affected communities located in Texas (Dwyer and Honey 2014; Horney and Smith 2015; Horney et al. 2016). 

These activities provided validation of the proposed metrics identified in the systematic review. For example, during the content review of disaster recovery plans, a total of 204 potential metrics were identified in plans and categorized by RSF or core capability. All plan-based metrics were categorized into one of the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool’s metrics, indicating that plan-based metrics validated the literature review-based metrics (Horney et al. 2016). Key informant interview and focus groups participants also supported the validity of the proposed metrics, pointing out that they “capture the complexities of community disaster recovery and provide potential opportunities for linkages to the development of disaster recovery plans and other activities that could increase community resilience in the future,” and also suggested changes mostly with the organization of the metrics (Dwyer and Horney 2014). A retrospective review of two case study communities undergoing recovery provided additional validation. The case studies were an attempt to use a community’s actual recovery experiences to collect data on the metrics and demonstrate how local recovery activities could be documented and shown to fulfill national recovery priorities. 

One case study of the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool’s functionality focused on New Hanover County’s recovery from Hurricane Irene in 2011. Hurricane Irene made landfall several times along the east coast of the United States in late August 2011, causing over $16 billion in damages. The storm’s first landfall in the United States was on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, just north of New Hanover County. New Hanover County, located in southeastern North Carolina and bordering the Atlantic Ocean, has approximately 200,000 residents (U.S. Census, 2010). Findings from the case study indicated that nearly half (forty-six percent) of the proposed metrics were represented in the Hurricane Irene recovery, both within community planning documents such as the County’s Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update in 2010 and in media reports and other documentation such as the New Hanover County Emergency Management Center’s Facebook page, Tweets, and YouTube videos that were created to inform residents about recovery issues (Covi 2012). Both baseline and current status data were most widely available for metrics related to economy, housing, and infrastructure. Fewer data were available for metrics in natural and cultural resources.

The metrics included in the current Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool were developed to capture a concise snapshot of community recovery functions at the local level and are applicable throughout the recovery continuum, defined by FEMA as a “sequence of interdependent and often concurrent activities that progressively advance a community towards a successful recovery” (U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2016). When leveraged in advance of a disruptive event, the metrics provided can guide preparedness and mitigation efforts by enabling users (e.g., planners, emergency managers, and long-term recovery committees) to readily identify and better understand existing vulnerabilities within the community, such as households without access to a vehicle (Figure 1). For example, practitioners populating the tool with baseline data from existing planning documents can compare pre- and post-disaster status using baseline data and updated current status data to identify disparate patterns of recovery in different focus areas such as housing or economic development. Quantitative data collected about ongoing recovery needs can serve as a means of promoting transparency and fostering public confidence in the actions of the local governing body. Reports generated by the tool can provide users a way to prioritize recovery goals and activities, potentially making recovery more effective and efficient and communities more resilient. 

Figure 1. Example of Disaster Recovery Tool Metric Chart

Management Functions

The management functions of the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool enable local users to maintain records of public outreach activities and meetings; store and access essential information for community organizations and other stakeholders; log, prioritize, and track the progress of recovery-oriented tasks; and capture resource inventories and expenditures for grant eligibility and reporting. 

Tracking and Reporting

Effective management of recovery operations necessitates rapid and reliable record keeping. In the aftermath of a disaster, decision-makers are challenged by resource limitations and time constraints. Therefore, the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool also functions as a disaster recovery management platform, enabling users to maintain accessible records of public outreach activities and local contacts, log and monitor the status of recovery-oriented tasks, and capture resource expenditure data required for grant eligibility and reporting. To streamline the process of required reporting, FEMA summary record forms may be automatically populated following data entry. The ability to generate forms from existing records saves critically needed time following a disaster. 

Future Work

Ultimately, all communities should have a high-quality, community-wide disaster recovery plan that reflects their own jurisdiction’s culture and practice of recovery planning and focuses on the inclusion of a network of stakeholders who share responsibility in rebuilding efforts. A holistic perspective on the progress of disaster recovery is essential for the development of well-informed disaster recovery plans that are actionable, feasible, and effective. For example, one of the primary indicators of a high-quality plan is a strong community fact base that accurately characterizes local conditions, such as identified hazards and existing resources available to reduce risk. It is often difficult for smaller communities with limited capacity for recovery planning to develop a robust fact base focused on high-priority issues. In this case, data collected to populate the metrics in the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool can guide the development of specific recovery plan elements, such as the fact base, as part of a larger plan, or the development of a stand-alone recovery plan. In the near future, the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool will provide a plan building template to give users an opportunity to leverage their time, effort, and resources by using the data entered into the Tool to develop a pre-disaster recovery plan for their jurisdiction.

References

Berke, P., J. Cooper, M. Aminto, S. Grabich, and J. Horney. 2014. “Adaptive Planning for Disaster Recovery and Resiliency: An Evaluation of 87 Local Recovery Plans in Eight States.” Journal of the American Planning Association 80:310-23. doi:10.1080/01944363.2014.976585.

Chang, Stephanie E. 2010. “Urban Disaster Recovery: A Measurement Framework and Its Application to the 1995 Kobe Earthquake.” Disasters 34:303-27.

City of Los Angeles. 1994. City of Los Angeles Recovery and Reconstruction Plan. Los Angeles: Emergency Operations Board. http://eird.org/cd/recovery-planning/docs/2-planning-process-scenario/Los-angles-recovery-and-reconstruction-plan.pdf.

Covi, Michelle. 2012. “Storm Practices: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Irene.” Coastwatch: A North Carolina Sea Grant Magazine, Autumn 2012. Accessed October 20, 2014. http://ncseagrant.ncsu.edu/coastwatch/previous-issues/2012-2/autumn-2012/storm-practices-lessons-learned-from-hurricane-irene/.

Cutter, Susan L., Christopher G. Burton, and Christopher T. Emrich. 2010. “Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 7:51. doi:10.2202/1547-7355.1732.

Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, Public Law 106-390, U.S. Statutes at Large 114 (2000): 1552-1576. 

Dwyer, Caroline, and Jennifer Horney. 2014. “Validating Indicators of Disaster Recovery with Qualitative Research.” PLOS Current Disasters 6:ecurrents.dis.ec60859ff436919e096d51ef7d50736f. doi:10.1371/currents.dis.ec60859ff436919e096d51ef7d50736f.

Gall, M., K. A. Borden, C. T. Emrich, and S. L. Cutter. 2011. “The Unsustainable Trend of Natural Hazard Losses in the United States.” Sustainability 3:2157-81.

Horney, J., M. Aminto, P. Berke, and G. Smith. 2016. “Developing Indicators to Measure Post-Disaster Community Recovery in the United States.” Disasters 41:124-49. doi:10.1111/disa.12190.

Horney, Jennifer, and Gavin Smith. 2015. Measuring Successful Disaster Recovery. A Case Study of Six Communities in Texas, United States. Tysons, VA: LMI Research Institute.

Jordan, Elizabeth, and Amy Javernick-Will. 2014. “Determining the Causal Factors of Community Recovery.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 32:405-27.

Louisiana Speaks. 2007. Louisiana Speaks Regional Plan. Vision and Strategies for Recovery and Growth in South Louisiana. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana Recovery Authority. http://www.cpex.org/louisiana-speaks/.

New Hanover County, North Carolina. 2010. “2010 Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update.” http://mitigationguide.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/NC_NewHanoverCo.pdf.

Norris, F. H., S. P. Stevens, B. Pfefferbaum, K. F. Wyche, and R. L. Pfefferbaum. 2008. “Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness.” American Journal of Community Psychology 41:127-50.

Norton, Richard K. 2005. “More and Better Local Planning. State-Mandated Local Planning in Coastal North Carolina.” Journal of the American Planning Association 71:55-71.

Olshansky, Robert B., Lewis D. Hopkins, and Laurie A. Johnson. 2012. “Disaster and Recovery: Processes Compressed in Time.” Natural Hazards Review 13:173-8. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000077.

Olshansky, Robert B., and Laurie A. Johnson. 2010. Clear as Mud: Planning for the Rebuilding of New Orleans. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Pielke Jr., R. A., J. Gratz, C. W. Landsea, D. Collins, M. A. Saunders, and R. Musulin. 2008. “Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1900–2005.” Natural Hazards Review 9:29–42. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29).

Smith, Gavin P., and Dennis Wenger. 2006. “Sustainable Disaster Recovery: Operationalizing an Existing Agenda.” In Handbook of Disaster Research, edited by Havidán Rodríguez, Enrico L. Quarantelli, Russell R. Dynes, 234-57. New York, NY: Springer Verlag.

U.S. Census Bureau. 2010. “American Fact Finder: New Hanover County, North Carolina.” http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml?src=bkmk.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 2016. National Disaster Recovery Framework. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Second edition. https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1466014998123-4bec8550930f774269e0c5968b120ba2/National_Disaster_Recovery_Framework2nd.pdf.

U.S. Government Accountability Office. 2016. Disaster Recovery. FEMA Needs to Assess Its Effectiveness in Implementing the National Disaster Recovery Framework. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office. http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/677511.pdf.

Zukowski, Rebecca S. 2014. “The Impact of Adaptive Capacity on Disaster Response and Recovery: Evidence Supporting Core Community Capabilities.” Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 29:380-7.


About the Author: Katie Kirsch is a Research Associate in the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and a PhD Candidate in Epidemiology and Public Health at Texas A&M University. She is the project manager of the Disaster Recovery Tracking Tool at trackyourrecovery.org. Jennifer Horney is a Professor in the Disaster Research Center and the Founding Director of the Epidemiology Program at the University of Delaware (previously Texas A&M). Her research focuses on the public health impacts of disasters and linkages between plan quality and post-disaster outcomes.

Featured Image: This image, by Sha’zire White as part of the ReFraming Food photo series, was the cover of the 42nd print edition of the Carolina Planning Journal.

Lessons in Disaster Response from the Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami

By Rachael Wolff

Tsunami comes from the Japanese characters meaning harbor (津tsu) and wave (波nami). While earthquakes and their resulting tsunamis have been a part of Japanese life since at least the 13th century, the 2011 duo that rocked Japan was the largest ever recorded in the country and fourth largest in the world. Interviews with first responders reveal their challenges with mental health and with “role conflict,” suggesting that communication could be improved during future man-made or natural disasters.

Japan is part of the “Ring of Fire,” home to the volatile Pacific Plate. Photo Credit: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

Three Disasters

Tōhoku is located in the northeastern region of Japan’s main Honshu island and is known for its hot springs, sake, cherry blossoms, and skiing. Though Tōhoku’s six prefectures are generally rural with a large elderly population, the city of Sendai was one of the most vulnerable areas hit. 

Map of Tōhoku, Japan. Photo Credit: Tōhoku Tourism Promotion Organization

At 2:45 pm on March 11, 2011, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake rocked Japan. The epicenter was detected 64 miles off of the Sendai coast and was estimated to be only 18.6 miles below the surface. Days before, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake with 6.0 magnitude aftershocks had occurred nearby. The pressure from the colliding tectonic plates was enough to create 9 to 131-foot tsunami waves that rolled in at the speed of a jet plane. These waves caused millions of dollars in damage as far east as California.

March 11, 2011 Shakemap. Photo Credit: The New York Times

At the time of the disaster, Japan was home to 54 nuclear reactors. The shocks from the earthquake-tsunami led to fires in multiple nuclear plants on the island, and the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was at the center of the scrutiny and press coverage. The Fukushima incident displaced more than 160,000 local residents, caused 44 deaths, and led to the sale of radioactive beef. Meanwhile, Japan also worked to control the smaller fires that burned along its coast. 

The immediate aftereffects of these disasters were devastating. Within 48 hours, 10 percent of the island—or 6 million homes—had lost power. Overall, between 15,000 and 30,000 people had perished, and there were some 100,000 missing children. The total damages in Japan may have reached $220 billion, destroying infrastructure, economies, and livelihoods—especially in farming and fishing villages such as Ishinomaki.

People take shelter as a ceiling collapses in a bookstore during the earthquake in Sendai, northeastern Japan, on March 11, 2011. Photo Credit: Kyodo/Reuters via The Atlantic

The Responders

In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, 100,000 members of the Self-Defense Force deployed, rescuing people trapped under buildings and stuck in flood waters. Elite squads of firefighters did the same, many of them rushing towards the Fukushima Daiichi disaster instead of away from it.

Dr. Michelle Dovil specializes in disaster risk, gender studies, and environmental inequality at Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University. In September 2014 during her doctoral program, she accompanied her advisor and Howard University professor Dr. Terri Adams to interview first responders in Sendai. 

Dovil said some of the most surprising results from the sample of firefighters they interviewed were the respondents’ hesitation towards emotional and psychological impacts.* While some admitted to not sleeping, depression, and triggers such as shaking or a tsunami movie on TV, none admitted to receiving any help. The government offered testing and subsequent counseling, but most firefighters were not receptive to it. Dovil observed that the trend may be similar in African American and Latinx communities, where mental health is still considered a “big taboo.” Indeed, both contemporary and academic sources suggest stigma and denial of mental health is common in Japan.

The firefighters also balanced emergency response and personal duties in a challenge of “role conflict.” Similar to what Adams and Dovil found post-Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, many first responders were conflicted between the need to help others and the desire to keep track of their own family, friends, and loved ones.

“With the challenges, especially with the role conflict, we saw a lot of similarities [to other disasters] as it relates to just being concerned: their anxiety, the frustration, and the worry,” Dovil said.

While focus groups did not directly address the topic of risk, many firefighters expressed that the earthquake-tsunami was unexpected. One respondent called on people to “take care of themselves.” Another added, “just evacuate and don’t think.” One respondent may have alluded to the Japanese concept of wa (和), or “social harmony,” in his final remarks:

“Japanese people support each other, so the conflict is very low. Japanese people are very polite and have good morals even in disasters. Japanese people will aim to support others.”

Firefighters search for victims on March 14, 2011, in Soma, Fukushima Prefecture, three days after the massive earthquake and tsunami struck. Photo Credit: AP via The Atlantic

Recommendations

Throughout the interview, both the firefighters and Dovil stressed the importance of information dissemination. While Japan is often seen as a leader in early warning systems and the emergency management community (also: TIME, World Bank, Washington Post), there were still breakdowns in communication. Specifically, phone systems were overwhelmed. At one fire station, there was a line for disaster victims but not another to communicate tasks to workers. Broadly, coastal and remote areas had difficulty evacuating. 

Dovil stressed that risk should be tailored to specific communities because there is no “monolithic group.” Instead: “Risk communication is a component in how people receive this message and how they perceive the message, which inadvertently impacts how these communities will take protective actions and/or evacuate as a result of a disaster.”

After the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, 91 countries provided aid to Japan. It becomes crucial for governments at all levels to understand the populations they serve so that disaster response and recovery can be as effective and efficient as possible.

* Dovil, Michelle. Interview by Rachael Wolff. March 16, 2020.

Featured Image: Huge waves sweep ashore and flood Sendai Airport. Photo Credit: Kyodo/Reuters via International Business Times.


About the Author: Rachael Wolff is a first-year master’s candidate in the Department of City and Regional Planning. She is interested in learning how flood risk shapes land use, property values and behavior. Prior to UNC, Rachael worked at a federal agency in Washington, D.C., where she also earned her bachelor’s degree at American University. 

From the CPJ Archives: (Re)Shaping the Development Discussion – Connecting Elected Officials and Resilience Experts in Coastal Louisiana

This week we’re sharing an article that originally appeared in Volume 43 of the Carolina Planning Journal back in 2018. The theme of that edition was Planning for Uncertainty, which seems fitting in the midst of Presidential Election primary season! In this Volume, articles covered diverse topics from gentrification to education to explore the myriad ways in which risk and uncertainty are ever present in planning. Traci Birch (PhD, AICP) and Jeff Carney (AIA, AICP) of the LSU Coastal Sustainability Studio focused on uncertainty in resilience planning specifically, presenting a range of creative planning methods for engaging communities in coastal restoration efforts.

Volume 43 and other back issues of the Journal can be found on our website at http://carolinaplanning.unc.edu/.


By Traci Birch (PhD, AICP) and Jeff Carney (AIA, AICP)
Introduction 

Forty-seven percent of Louisiana’s population lives in the coastal zone, which is also a major locus of seafood, oil and gas, maritime, and petrochemical industries for the nation—what Laska et al. (2005) refer to as “immovable industries.” These people and economies reside in major cities, suburban communities, and linear villages along the region’s rivers and bayous. Threats to these communities are well-documented. Louisiana has lost nearly 1,900 square miles of coastal wetlands since the 1930s, and is currently experiencing a land loss rate of more than 16 square miles annually (CPRA 2012). As sea levels rise and shorelines erode, coastal communities face increased risks of flooding, storm surge, and inundation. However, the immovability of industry coupled with deep place attachment cultivated through intimate knowledge of the local environment, require adaptation for survival in the face of coastal disturbances (Burley et al. 2007). Louisiana coastal communities are not going away; instead, they are learning to live with risks and build more safely and resiliently through planning and improved community design. 

While the need for climate adaptation is widely recognized by academics and many public officials in at-risk communities, relatively few communities have begun to take action. Climate change and its impacts fall in the category of “wicked problems”: having no definite formulation and no clear resolution (Rittel and Webber 1973). Deitz and Stern (1998) note several reasons for the lack of action on the part of public officials, including the complex and multi-dimensional nature of the issues; uncertainty in the science and understanding of climate dynamics; the long-term nature of the problem and pressure to maintain the status quo; and challenges with coordinating stakeholders. In Louisiana, a lack of action may also be attributed to uncertainty surrounding potential impacts of large-scale restoration projects that promise to stabilize the coast, but provide few details about what restoration projects may mean for coastal communities. 

Climate change is a global phenomenon, but the impacts are experienced most acutely in place – to people’s homes, communities, resources, and wellbeing. It is in these places—big cities and small towns—that elected officials make a variety of policy decisions that have significant impact on local environmental conditions and resiliency (McBeth and Bennett 2001, Zwald et al. 2016, Lee and Koski 2012). To overcome obstacles to resilient community decision-making, there is a need to enhance resources and capacity for decision-makers. In particular, Beatley (2009: 71) emphasizes the importance of working with elected officials to nurture forward-looking leadership, noting “strong leaders have the potential to form coalitions, build bridges, and work to overcome the usual objections and political impediments that exist to thinking and acting.” There is a need, particularly at the local level where information is lacking, for processes that bring experts, decision-makers, and community members together in meaningful negotiations that incorporate scientific information, local knowledge, and relevant values and interests (Karl et al. 2007, NCR 2009). Further, there is a need to enhance adaptive capacity through building horizontal and vertical networks capable of addressing complex issues of risk and resilience (Adger 2003, Walker and Salt 2006). 

In light of these capacity needs, adaptation efforts require coordination and collaboration among national, state and local government agencies (including universities), and a variety of sectors (Susskind 2010, NCR 2009). To begin addressing these needs, the Louisiana State University (LSU) Coastal Sustainability Studio (CSS) developed the Louisiana Community Resilience Institute (LCRI), which brings researchers and students together with elected officials, and public and private sector experts to undertake project-based planning and urban design focused on building community resilience. The following provides an overview of the LCRI, how this work dovetails with other research and planning processes, and a concrete framework and recommendations to guide researchers and communities in cultivating similar efforts. 

Theoretical Framework

Community resilience has become a ubiquitous term in urban planning and design related to enhancing capacity to cope with environmental change and disturbance. While a recent addition to this lexicon, it is not a new concept. Coming from the Latin root resilire, meaning to spring or bounce back, it was first used by physical scientists to describe the stability of non-living materials and resistance to external shocks. The concept was adapted by Holling (1973) as a descriptive ecological concept characterizing the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbance and persist without qualitative structural change. Since then, resilience has been redefined and extended to encompass ecological, socio-ecological, and economic systems (Folke 2006, Holling 2001, Walker and Salt 2006). From the planning and urban design perspective, resilience has become the new way of talking about hazard mitigation, emphasizing adaptation and developing underlying capacity (Beatley 2009: 6). While reconceptualization broadens the potential for resilience science and policy across disciplines, some argue clarity and practical relevance have suffered (Brand and Jax 2007, Cutter 2016a, Davoudi 2012). The intent and ecological foundation of resilience has given way to a blending of descriptive aspects that make definition, operationalization, and assessment difficult—what Markusen (2003) refers to as ”fuzzy conceptualization.” Cutter (2016b: 110) observes “such vagueness has its merits, especially in the policy world where the goals and motivations of proponents are highly variable and politicized.” However, Markusen (2003) points out that fuzzy conceptualization also makes implementation challenging. Matyas and Pelling (2014: S1) note the ambiguousness surrounding resilience means “it is a concept caught between the abstract and the operational.” Nevertheless, others note this malleability creates flexibility and opportunity to foster communication between science and planning practice (Brand and Jax 2007, Davoudi 2012). 

Communities, however, face a number of challenging economic, social, and environmental changes requiring attention. There is a growing need for effective ways to support adaptation-related decision making due to slow-onset and rapid environmental change. Government agencies, businesses, and individuals increasingly find themselves fundamentally unprepared for meeting the challenges of climate change. Typically, local decision making—such as infrastructure construction and the types of zoning and development regulations implemented—assume environmental stability. Yet there is increasing awareness of uncertainty and vulnerability associated with environmental change. Local governments also have core regulatory powers in the land use, transportation, and waste sectors critical to comprehensive climate change responses (Trisolini 2010). Building flexibility, adaptability, and durability into local decision making is key to building resilience (Beatley 2009, Godschalk 2003, Vale and Campanella 2005). In particular, there is a need to bring science to decision-makers, and distill it into usable information to guide policy. Researchers and academics can play an important role in linking scientific knowledge to action to encourage collaboration and enhance resilience and adaptive capacity (Ostrander and Portney 2007). Community-university partnerships can produce knowledge that is more relevant, legitimate, and useful for local decision-making (Maurasse 2001).  In the following we provide an overview of one such community-university partnership and illustrate efforts to build resilience capacity for Louisiana coastal communities. We explain key lessons learned about capacity- and network-building, and how others may apply these lessons. 

Case Study: Louisiana Community Resilience Institute

With landfall of Hurricane Gustav and Ike in September 2008, Louisiana suffered damage from two devastating storms. This came on the heels of the 2005 hurricane season, which saw two of the strongest and most damaging hurricanes in history hit the State. In response, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Louisiana Office of Community Development, Disaster Recovery Unit (OCD-DRU) designated $10 million in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funding to enhance community resilience through innovative planning. The funds were allocated in 2010 to two programs: 1) the Community Resiliency Pilot Program (CRPP), and 2) the Louisiana Resiliency Assistance Program (LRAP). CRPP was a competitive grant program providing funding to communities in support of locally-driven measures addressing risk, mitigation, and sustainability. Thirty impacted communities received funding, which ranged from comprehensive planning and zoning, to housing strategies and water resource management. In addition, OCD-DRU awarded CSS funds through the same source to establish LRAP in support and assistance to the CRPP grantees for a period of two years. 

The Coastal Sustainability Studio is a trans-disciplinary institute bringing together scientists, engineers, designers, and planners to research and respond to issues of resettlement, coastal restoration, flood protection, and socio-economic sustainability. The impetus for LRAP was to reduce risk and develop strategies to guide local resilience planning and project implementation. LRAP is a statewide effort to collect, develop, and disseminate data and resources on planning and best practices to build more resilient networks in Louisiana. Developed in concert with CRPP, LRAP collected information on grantees’ planning efforts and provided open access through the program’s website. Funding was provided to develop resilience and adaptation webinars and workshops for government staff, practitioners, and researchers. Funding was also provided for focused research on local capacity for, and barriers to, resilience and adaptation. This research was primarily qualitative in nature, including literature reviews, local and regional conditions assessments, planning document analyses, and stakeholder observations and interviews. Priority needs and concerns of local communities were identified, as well as possible strategies for addressing those needs. Key issues identified include: disconnects between land use, hazard mitigation, and coastal restoration planning; a lack of tools, funds, and capacity to effectively implement resilience measures at the local level; federal and state policies, such as NFIP and the Biggert-Waters Act, pushing local elected officials away from nonstructural strategies (Manning-Broome et al. 2015); and, information overload stalling decision-making (Nelson et al. 2007). 

In partnership with Louisiana Sea Grant, Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA), and the Kresge Foundation, CSS expanded LRAP in 2014 to further address these issues. From the start, CSS recognized the need to work with elected officials to tackle community-specific problems through the lens of resilience. Few elected officials of small- to medium-sized communities in Louisiana are career public servants. Rather, they come into office with business acumen, lifelong connections, and a strong desire to “do right” by their community. They have a deep understanding of the vulnerability and risk their constituents and economies face, but less knowledge of what resilience and adaptation planning means, or how tools such as planning or zoning might make their communities safer. To meet this need, CSS built upon LRAP to develop and implement the Louisiana Community Resilience Institute (LCRI). Modeled on the format for the Mayors’ Institute on City Design, LCRI is a three-part program focused on translating planning and design into improved community resilience. CSS works closely with elected officials and staff to identify issues and opportunities, develop projects, and provide resources before, during, and after an intensive workshop. This carefully constructed agenda is intended to apply resilience thinking to community challenges, operationalize resilience locally, build networks of local officials and professionals, and engage university students in community-based learning.

The LCRI team included academics, government officials, and practitioners. In addition to CSS faculty and students, participants included elected officials (i.e. mayor or parish president) from each community engaged, municipal staff (e.g. planners and floodplain managers), subject matter experts (SMEs), and CPRA coastal scientists. LCRI was supported by the CSS 2015 Summer Internship Program, which employed full-time graduate students from across the country. The interns compiled demographic and planning profiles for all small- to medium-sized coastal communities. Communities were chosen based on the following criteria: 1) a 2010 population of 2,500 or more to avoid skewing toward very small communities who rely on other government agencies to make development decisions (Berke and French 1994); and, 2) large cities such as New Orleans and Baton Rouge were excluded because they have significant capacity and may serve as SMEs for smaller communities. This resulted in approximately thirty coastal cities and towns, and twenty parishes (counties) as potential participants. In addition to US Census data, interns examined adopted planning documents, and current and proposed 2012 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan projects to determine how regional coastal restoration may be considered within the local planning framework. Interns also developed political snapshots, including governing structure and election cycles, to better understand community capacity and when participation may yield the most success. 

LCRI Phase I started in December 2015 with faculty and graduate students engaging six Louisiana communities. Initially, CSS faculty worked closely with elected officials and staff to discuss pressing issues, priorities, and decide on a project-based challenge to present at the workshop. Projects generally fell into some combination of three categories: corridor redevelopment, waterfront redevelopment, and/or retrofitting for mitigation and adaptation. For example, one project looked at a one-mile section of a state highway where several large vacant properties (i.e. car dealerships and warehouses) have both reduced the potential for new investment and caused localized flooding. Another corridor project examined the need for increased stormwater management, pedestrian and bicycle access, and design overlays encouraging redevelopment of big box retail sites before they become nuisance properties. In this case, the community recognized the need to encourage high-quality investment in a “new downtown,” as the historic waterfront downtown is threatened by short- and long-term climate change. Projects developed were varied, but resonated with all elected officials because they face similar challenges. To prepare elected officials and SMEs for the workshop, each received a briefing book with demographic, SWOT, and project-specific information in advance to familiarize and generate questions and ideas. 

Phase II consisted of an intensive two-day workshop, held in Baton Rouge in April 2016, providing elected officials access to six nationally-recognized SMEs for candid discussions on their identified projects. SMEs represented fields such as applied ecology, land conservation, sustainable urban design, green real estate development, disaster recovery planning, and hazard mitigation. The workshop was divided into six distinct sessions, each starting with a SME presentation about their work (e.g. green infrastructure, blight reduction, creative placemaking) relevant to the proposed project. Then each elected official was given twenty minutes to present their challenge, before the group began an abbreviated charrette process. The group brainstormed community issues (both specific and general), with SMEs and political peers sharing ideas for problem-solving and building community resilience. Discussions and conceptual designs focused on specific risks facing the site, the community, and the region, and reflected ecosystem limitations as well as local and state political dynamics. CSS faculty led the discussion and recorded all oral, written, and visual aspects of the work for synopsis. After the workshop, the mayors returned home with a repertoire of ideas and implementation recommendations tailored to their community challenges. In the weeks following the event, CSS produced a final report with specific project details, best practices, and practical examples for each participant. 

Finally, Phase III, which is ongoing, provides opportunities for CSS to build strategic partnerships with individual communities to assist with implementing projects developed and vetted at the workshop. These opportunities include providing additional research through project support or design studios, and seeking financial support through grant funding or gifts. For example, CSS landscape architecture faculty engaged third-year studio students in a site planning effort that built on an LCRI project. The class worked closely with the mayor and staff to understand the needs and priorities of the community, presenting their final design projects at the end of the semester. This work was augmented with policy and funding recommendations provided by faculty experts. Another partnership between CSS and a community has led to the award of an EPA STAR grant that will begin in the spring of 2017. This grant will enable CSS faculty and students to work with the Mayor and city staff to consider ecosystem services in the design of community infrastructure. These efforts have improved local planning capacity and provided a unique community-based learning opportunity for students in architecture and landscape architecture.

Discussion

The intent of the LCRI was fourfold, to: 1) enhance resources and capacity for building resilience in Louisiana’s threatened coastal communities; 2) enhance adaptive capacity through building both horizontal and vertical networks; 3) create a workable model for university-community partnerships, and 4) provide community-based learning opportunities for LSU students. In each case, university and community partners were pleased with the results, based on feedback from LCRI participants. However, LCRI was not without its challenges, which are shaping future efforts. The following focuses on three key challenges, and provides recommendations for this and similar efforts. 

Invest time in relationship building: Collaborative community initiatives of any type require relationship building as part of planning and implementation—and relationship building takes time. In this case, building relationships and trust were required before elected officials showed willingness to participate. Building on pre-existing relationships was helpful, but face-to-face meetings and reassurances that peers were also participating was necessary. Further, including communities often overlooked due to geography or size helped build trust in the inclusiveness of the process and secure commitments. Our challenge was knowing 1) what kind of relationship building was necessary for varied communities, and 2) how long it would take to build relationships focused on capacity building. It helped that there was a specific challenge for discussion, but strict timelines meant there was less time than desired for relationship-building and project development before the workshop. Including this step into the process is critical for building rapport and place-specific knowledge for faculty, and ownership in the process for elected officials. 

Explicit goals and objectives: Funders and administrators require clear evidence that funds are being used effectively to accomplish explicit goals. From the onset, university goals and objectives were well-defined. Less well-defined were explicit goals, objectives, and expectations for each partner community. While ambiguity made way for clarity over time, clearly documenting specific goals at the beginning is essential. This helps to build trust and measure success throughout the process. It also helps identify well-suited SMEs early in the process. Further, clear goals are important for Phase III implementation, when responsibilities may shift from the core team to other faculty and/or result in time lags related to external funding requests. 

Incrementalism versus paradigm shifting: Two primary goals of this project were to enhance resources and capacity for community resilience, and to create networks of similarly versed elected officials and experts. We worked with each community to operationalize the concept of resilience that will be useful in future development decision-making. The small scale was manageable for students, officials, SMEs, and the overall workshop format. However, the scale and condensed timeframe meant that the work can be better described as incremental rather than paradigm-altering. The process planted a seed for some, or watered an already rooted concept. Establishing community-university partnerships opened lines of communication and negotiation crucial to any planning process. More collaboration and relationship-building is necessary to develop goals and objectives that enhance resilience policy and adaptive capacity. Universities have a unique opportunity to take the long-range view a process like this requires, to establish relationships, and to distill science into usable information. 

Conclusion

By many accounts, this inaugural effort was successful and provided opportunities for CSS to engage with coastal communities in new ways. One particularly valuable aspect (identified by the mayors themselves) was the opportunity for mayors to meet and have candid discussions, sharing ideas and experiences—and CSS continues to work to foster these connections. Moving forward, CSS is preparing for the second LCRI, which will focus on Louisiana communities impacted by riverine flooding in 2016. For the next iteration, CSS is partnering with FEMA and OCD-DRU to provide additional resources to mayors and staff to build relationships and adaptive capacity in the wake of disaster. Scaling up this type of work depends heavily on the continuity CSS can provide, and the availability of funding to support communities and nascent resilience networks. Undertaking this type of community-university partnership is not without its challenges. However, overcoming roadblocks and establishing community-university partnerships can help at-risk communities begin to adapt to climate change. 

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About the Author: Traci Birch (PhD, AICP) is an Assistant Professor and Managing Director of the Coastal Sustainability Studio at Louisiana State University. Traci’s research and work focuses on strengthening coastal and inland communities through coordinated land use and environmental planning. Jeff Carney (AIA, AICP) is an Associate Professor at the University of Florida School of Architecture and the Associate Director of the Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience. Previously, he served as the Director of the Coastal Sustainability Studio.

Featured Image: This image of the Icelandic countryside, taken by recent DCRP grad Karla Jimenez-Magdalena, was the cover of the 43rd print edition of the Carolina Planning Journal.

Coming Soon: CPJ’s 45th Edition, “Hazards in the Southeastern US”

Update: In response to COVID-19 social distancing guidelines, we will no longer be holding our semi-annual Launch Party this Spring. However, you can subscribe for a mail order of the 45th Volume here by Friday, April 17th.

Given a costly and devastating year for natural disasters, particularly in the Southeastern US, how can planners prepare for natural hazards in the near and distant future?

The topic is timely for North Carolinians following recent major hurricanes Florence and Dorian. Not to mention the national dialogue about the effects of climate change. The 45th edition of the Carolina Planning Journal, titled Hazards in the Southeastern US, addresses the question presented above from our “Call for Papers.” Featured authors from many different sectors and regions of the US grapple with issues of resiliency, collaboration, and equity within the realm of natural hazards.

Articles cover a lot of ground in terms of both geography and topics. They present case studies from North Carolina, Florida, and Puerto Rico to illustrate successes in coastal resiliency, intergovernmental and inter-agency collaboration, and environmental justice. Authors also evaluate existing hazards mitigation plans and financing models in the face of climate change to make recommendations for municipalities and individuals. Ultimately, this issue of the Carolina Planning Journal acknowledges what different groups are currently doing well and what they could improve to prepare for natural hazard events. Ultimately, we all have a lot to learn.

Additionally, the new issue will include reviews of up-and-coming planning literature and an update from the Department of City and Regional Planning.

The 45th issue will be available for purchase through our website and at our semi-annual Launch Party at Steel String in late April. For more information, contact us at carolinaplanningjournal@gmail.com.

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