Tag: hurricane

History Repeats Itself: How to Help Southern Louisiana

September 3, 2021 / odrozd

By Pierce Holloway, CPJ Editor-In-Chief & Emma Vinella-Brusher, Angles Managing Editor

On August 29th, Category 4 Hurricane Ida struck the state of Louisiana. Described by Governor John Bel Edwards as “the strongest storm to hit anywhere in the state since the 1850s,” the storm’s center passed within 18 miles of downtown New Orleans causing tremendous damage to the area.^[i] Within hours over 560,000 households were without power, and this has worsened to over 826,000 across the state as of the writing of this article.^[ii] These outages come during the late summer heat, when the inability to use air conditioning, dry clothes, and keep food fresh can rapidly lead to unhealthy living conditions and increased safety concerns.

The Same Story, 16 Years Later

Eerily, Hurricane Ida passed through New Orleans 16 years to the day of Hurricane Katrina. This timing conjures visceral memories of the most costly hurricane in U.S. history, in an area still recovering from the storm’s damage. While it is easy to draw comparisons between these two storms, there are important differences to note:

Storm Intensity: Hurricane Ida struck Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane with a storm diameter of 414 miles. Though Katrina was only classified as Category 3, it reached a diameter of nearly 680 miles, with 28 foot storm surges and wind speeds of 125 mph. Current Ida data finds 150 mph sustained winds and 8-10 foot storm surges, though these may increase as more information is collected.
Damage: While it is still too early to estimate the total damage and costs associated with Ida, current predictions are upwards of $15-20 Billion in insured losses.^[iii] This is compared to the $176.5 Billion in damages estimated from Hurricane Katrina.^[iv] Much of the 2005 damage was caused by levees breaking within the city of New Orleans; fortunately it appears that the levees have been hardened and expanded enough since that they held during Ida.
Deaths: Thus far at least 60 deaths have been attributed to Hurricane Ida’s wake across six states, though sadly this number is expected to rise as state officials gather additional information.^[v] This compares to the over 1,800 deaths associated with Katrina.^[vi] However it is important to note that there is always uncertainty surrounding accurately counting storm-related deaths, as the effects are not always immediate.
Health Impacts: Thousands if not millions are being displaced due to flooding and wind damages, which makes accessing needed medication and services a challenge. Moreover, experiencing the impacts of hurricanes has been shown to lead to mental disorders among previously healthy individuals while also compounding the detrimental effects of pre-existing mental health disorders.^[vii]

A person crosses the street during Hurricane Ida on August 29, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Photo by: Brandon Bell, Getty Images

What Does “Recovery” Look Like?

When comparing these two severe storms, one important question comes to mind: Have New Orleans and other surrounding communities recovered since Katrina? While there are many useful metrics for assessing recovering, employment levels can provide a quick snapshot. In July 2005, just before Hurricane Katrina, the New Orleans area had around 625,000 jobs. In the months following nearly 185,000 jobs were lost as residents fled the area, and many of these jobs never returned. Since Katrina, the state has also struggled with the impacts of the 2007-2009 recession and COVID-19 among other more local obstacles. The combination of each of these has hamstrung a heavily tourist dependent economy, impacting the resilience and ability of communities to recover. As of July 2021 New Orleans had recovered to around 530,000 jobs, still less than 15% of pre-Katrina levels, while employment nation-wide has risen 9% since this time. Hurricane Ida is yet another significant setback in the region’s recovery process.

The effects of Hurricane Ida have been felt well beyond Louisiana as well, with severe damages stretching from the Gulf Coast up into the Northeast. Unfortunately, Ida’s vast destruction may be close to the new normal we can expect for tropical cyclones.While climate models differ in the specifics, there is a growing consensus that storms are projected to significantly intensify as climate change continues.^[viii]^{,^[ix]} Massive infrastructure adaptation is needed across the U.S. to mitigate future storm damages, coupled with the public health resources to ensure vulnerable populations can be protected and well-served.^[x]

Organizations to Support During this Time:

^[i] Staff, W. (2021, August 28). Hurricane Ida will be ‘strongest storm’ to hit Louisiana since 1850s, governor warns. WAFB.

^[ii] PowerOutage.US. Power Outages: Louisiana.

^[iii] Otani, A. (2021, August 31). Firms Estimate Hurricane Ida Could Cause Over $15 Billion in Insured Losses. Wall Street Journal.

^[iv] Blake, E. S., Landsea, C. W., & Gibney, E. J. (2011). NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-6. 49.

^[v] Paúl, M.L. et al. (2021, September 2). Deaths climb to at least 44 from Northeast floods caused by Hurricane Ida’s remnants. (2021, September 2). Washington Post.

^[vi] Bialik, C. (2015, August 26). We Still Don’t Know How Many People Died Because Of Katrina. FiveThirtyEight.

^[vii] Espinel, Z. et al. (2019). Forecast: Increasing Mental Health Consequences From Atlantic Hurricanes Throughout the 21st Century. Psychiatric Services, 70(12), 1165–1167.

^[viii] Biasutti, M. et al. (2012). Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean. Climatic Change 112, 819–845.

^[ix] Ting, M. et al. (2019). Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast. Scientific Reports 9, 7795.

^[x] Petkova, E. P. et al. (2015). Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12(8), 9342–9356.

Pierce Holloway is a second-year master’s student at the Department of City and Regional Planning with a focus on Climate Change Adaptation. Before coming to Chapel Hill he worked as a geospatial analyst for Urban3, working on visualizing economic productivity of communities and states. Through his coursework he hopes to explore the nexus between adaptation for climate change and community equitability. In his free time, he enjoys long bike rides, trail running, and any excuse to play outside.

Emma Vinella-Brusher is a second-year dual degree Master’s student in City and Regional Planning and Public Health interested in equity, mobility, and food security. Born and raised in Oakland, CA, she received her undergraduate degree in Environmental Studies from Carleton College before spending four years at the U.S. Department of Transportation in Cambridge, MA. In her free time, Emma enjoys running, bike rides, live music, and laughing at her own jokes.

Featured image courtesy of Scott Olson, Getty Images

Hazard Mitigation and Hurricane Harvey: Reflections on a Conversation with Dr. Galen Newman

October 30, 2018 / odrozd

The following is derived from an interview about the 2017 disaster with Dr. Galen Newman, a Fellow in the Institute for Sustainable Communities and a member of the Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center at Texas A&M University. His research focuses primarily on urban regeneration and flood resilience.

Harvey was different. While many hurricanes pose serious flooding risks to coastal areas, the danger often lies in the rapid rise of seawater known as a storm surge. There is a reason that Harvey’s storm surge was hardly mentioned in the weeks and months following its landfall: the most serious flooding was caused by excessive rain. In an area that is accustomed to only 50 inches of precipitation annually, Harvey’s nearly 48 inches of rainfall was devastating. This inundation of water posed a completely different set of challenges for the Houston area.

Harvey’s Uniqueness

Accordingly, it was nearly impossible for authorities to plan for the 2017 hurricane. The unique nature of the storm resulted in an unprecedented strain on Harris County’s stormwater infrastructure system. Due to relentless and widespread rainfall, one-quarter of the resultant flooding occurred in areas outside of the 100-year floodplain. The new and unpredictable pattern of flooding had catastrophic effects on some Houstonians. Flood insurance is not required outside of designated floodplains and as a result, many of those whose property was damaged or destroyed were forced to start over from square one.

While Harvey was a particularly devastating event, Houston was previously vulnerable to any major rain, storm, or hurricane occurrence. The relaxed regulation of land use zoning and widespread development (much of it within existing floodplains) meant that a substantial amount of land was covered by impervious surfaces like concrete and asphalt. Weep holes—the gaps within brick walls that allow for drainage and ventilation—were easily clogged. Combined with relative inattention to stormwater infrastructure, these practices led to inadequate drainage in neighborhoods all over Harris County.

Keeping it Local

Preparing for the next big storm must be undertaken by planners and policymakers at all levels of government and private enterprise. While large-scale infrastructure improvements and national or state hazard mitigation plans can be helpful, it is critical to focus on smaller scale issues that could endanger individual communities and neighborhoods. This is especially salient when addressing issues in underserved communities. For example, some lower-income neighborhoods in Houston were especially vulnerable because of their open ditch drainage system and their proximity to industrial sites that could potentially contaminate floodwaters. Local issues like this are easy to gloss over at the national level. It is critical for lawmakers and planners to address the issues and concerns of individual communities and neighborhoods while drawing up large-scale mitigation plans.

There is also much to be done at a more regional level. The Texas Department of Transportation is keeping this in mind with long-term infrastructure projects, such as a redesign of highway 45 that will integrate detention ponds and pumps to prevent highway flooding like what occurred during Harvey¹. The goal is to prepare for the 100-year storm, which may be insufficient given that Harvey was a 500-year storm and these kinds of events are projected to happen more frequently in the coming years.

Key Takeaways

The storm’s aftermath forced cities all over the country to take a more critical look at their respective infrastructure and hazard mitigation plans. Cities have begun encouraging sustainable development that reduces the negative impacts on natural hydrology and drainage. Changes can also be seen in floodplain development. Building parks and other types of green infrastructure in floodplains prevents substantial losses while benefiting the local community. Buyouts in flood-prone areas becoming more common as well, as cities seek to move people and businesses from high-risk areas. While every storm is different, focusing on local issues as well as city and statewide mitigation plans puts cities in the most resilient position possible. With the negative consequences of climate change unlikely to halt anytime soon², Houston will need to take an aggressive approach in order to lose its reputation as one of the most flood-prone cities in the United States³.

Dr. Galen D. Newman is an Associate Professor in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning at Texas A&M University (TAMU). At TAMU, he also serves as Associate Department Head, Coordinator of the Bachelor of Science in Urban Planning Program, Associate Director of the Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, and Discovery Lead for Community Resilience for the Institute for Sustainable Communities. His research interests include urban regeneration, land use science, spatial analytics, community flood resilience, and community/urban scaled design. His current research focuses on the integration of urban regeneration (the reuse of vacant properties in shrinking and growing cities) and urban flood resilience.

About the Author: Wayne Powell is a first year Master’s student specializing in transportation and housing/community development. He is a research assistant with the Center for Urban and Regional studies focusing on accessibility in public transit. He hopes to further his education and career in planning by studying how technology can be used to shape cities and their transportation networks.

Delaughter, Gail. “Flood Control Is A Big Part of A Major Houston Transportation Project.” Houston Public Media, 24 Aug. 2018, www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/transportation/2018/08/24/301631/flood-control-is-a-big-part-of-a-major-houston-transportation-project/
“IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5ºC.” IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 6 Aug. 2018, www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/ma-p48.shtml.
Satija, Neena. “Boomtown, Flood Town.” Scientific American, Springer Nature American, 8 Dec. 2016, www.scientificamerican.com/article/boomtown-flood-town/.

Featured Image: Cars floating down a flooded street in Houston, Texas. Photo credit: Dominick Del Vecchio, FEMA.

Hurricane Michael

October 11, 2018 / odrozd

Making landfall yesterday with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (just 1 mph short of Category 5 status), Hurricane Michael broke the record for strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle since records began in 1851. Striking near Mexico Beach, Florida, it’s minimum central pressure of 919 millibars also makes it the third most intense storm to make landfall in the U.S. ahead of Andrew (1992) and Katrina (2005) and surpassed only by Camille (1969) and the Labor Day Hurricane (1935). This is a remarkable event for a number of reasons, but every storm is unique.

Compared to Hurricane Florence this past September, which dumped more than 35 inches of rain and blew damaging winds and storm surge in North and South Carolina for several days, Michael, is moving much faster (14 mph vs 3 mph) and following a more typical track north and north east.

Instead of a slow-moving ‘rain-maker’, the most concerning aspects of Michael were and continue to be the extreme wind and storm surge. Compared to Hurricane Irma of 2017, which caused $50 billion in damages to Florida, Michael’s forecasted track has been easier to predict, though it’s dangerous energy is more focused on a region of the state as opposed to the entire state.

Michael is also unique in that it intensified into a major hurricane just a few days after developing and almost immediately posed a threat to land. Fueled by abnormally warm ocean waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the approaching storm gave communities less time to prepare and evacuate. On the other hand, the relatively high certainty with its track made for easier preparations from an emergency management perspective.

As hurricane Michael races north-northeast ahead of a cold front, he has produced the following hazardous impacts:

Catastrophic storm surges of 9-14 feet across several counties from Tyndall Air Force Base to Aucilla River, damaging water levels of <9 ft elsewhere. View real-time storm surge forecast.
Tropical storm force winds (39-73mph) more than 300 miles across which may knock power out for over a million customers through Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina
Hurricane force winds (74 mph +) that will cause significant structural and environmental damage to homes, businesses and public facilities across multiple states
A stripe of rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches across northwest Florida, southeast Alabama, Georgia and portions of the Carolinas and Virginia, with up to a foot possible in some areas causing flash flooding
EF-0 or EF-1 tornadoes embedded within the outer bands of the storm may spin up quickly with little warning across the Southeast

Follow live coverage through the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network partner Florida Storms Facebook Page or view a summary of initial impacts documented by the Weather Channel.

Hurricane Michael as it hits the coast

Florida’s disaster recovery and adaptation planning work

While impacts expected in this region of Florida are in many ways unprecedented, the state is one of the most proactive and forward thinking not only in terms of its disaster preparedness and response, but also its recovery and adaptation planning. The impetus for their work, not surprisingly, was a response to the devastating 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons which produced 12 named storms making landfall in the state.

A few years later, the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) and Florida Division of Emergency Management began the Post-Disaster Redevelopment Planning Initiative. In 2007 and 2008, the first community case study they worked with was Panama City who is currently feeling the effects of the western side of Hurricane Michael. Lessons learned from their experience and through other case studies eventually led to the development and release of the often-cited Post-Disaster Redevelopment Planning guide for Florida communities which outlines a process and set of best practices. Recognizing the increased interest and importance of climate change, an addendum on Addressing Adaptation During Long-term Recovery was developed earlier this year and focuses on how to incorporate sea-level-rise and other concerns into the recovery process.

While this has led to a number of coastal counties developing Post-disaster redevelopment plans before the disaster, it’s unclear to what extent those have influenced activities and resilience building after past storms. Described by many former and current UNC City and Regional Planning professors, disaster present a ‘window of opportunity’ to increase the resilience of a community (Berke & Campanella, 2006, Smith, 2012).

Also new in 2018, the Adaptation Planning Guidebook compiles stakeholder involvement and research “to assist Florida communities in preparing for and dealing with the effects of sea level rise, especially coastal flooding, erosion, and ecosystem changes”. It is the compilation of nearly 30 documents focusing on adaptation and planning as part of the Community Resilience Initiative over a five-year period.

Moving forward…

The state of Florida certainly has the experience and vision for building resilience after major storms like Irma and Michael, but the inevitable complications and stress that come with dozens of agencies and organizations trying to address short-term critical needs make decisions for local communities about the long-term all the more difficult.

Expected Impacts in Central NC

Below is a summary of the impacts expected in the Triangle area from the National Weather Service in Raleigh, NC:

National Weather Service Summary of Impacts

About the Author: Christian Kamrath is a Coastal Resilience Specialist with the N.C. Division of Coastal Management in Morehead City where he works with local governments, state and federal agencies as well as community organizations to promote and facilitate coastal adaptation and resilience planning in the state’s 20 coastal counties. He has previously worked on projects involving climate adaptation, disaster recovery and emergency preparedness planning with North Carolina Sea Grant, the Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He is a self-proclaimed weather-nerd and former forecaster at the University of Florida (WRUF-TV6) and recent graduate (’18) of the Masters of City and Regional Planning program at UNC-Chapel Hill where he received the Natural Hazards Resilience Certificate.

Most at Risk for Erasure from Climate Change

September 15, 2018 / odrozd

Up and down the coast of the Carolinas, the iconic seaside towns are facing a brutal storm. Their residents, restauranteurs, and local government staff are holding their collective breath to see what will be left after Hurricane Florence. They know what we all know now—the storm’s waves and wind will likely bring large scale destruction. Local and national media are covering Florence by breathlessly reporting from the water’s edge, while we nervously watch the waves crash behind them on the screen.

Ironically, small, rural communities further inland may have more to lose in the changing climate. The drama of the destruction at the coast overshadows the deep vulnerability of communities that lie in the inner coastal plains of both the Carolinas – flat expanses of agricultural land and swamps that many people only see on their way to or from the coast itself. These areas sit downstream of large watersheds further upland. Their financial and political resources pale in comparison to coastal communities.

Seven Springs, a tiny town in Wayne County, North Carolina, is such a town. Located on the Neuse River, it boasts natural springs it was named after. It was the site of a Civil War battle, and later home to two private resorts built over the springs. Hurricane Floyd flooded almost every home in town in 1999, and as much as a third of the original population did not return to rebuild. In 2016, floodwater returned with Hurricane Matthew. Painstakingly, some houses have come back online. Another blow from Hurricane Florence could be a lot to overcome.

While these rural places may not face the fury of the ocean’s winds and surge, they also lack the tourism revenue and iconic landmarks that help generate justification for rebuilding roads, bridges, businesses and homes after repeated storms. After Hurricane Florence, most will make some kind of recovery due to the hard work of residents, tireless commitment from leaders, and, one hopes, external support from volunteers, nonprofits, foundations, and public agencies. But some residents will walk away from the damage and the trauma of the storm, and few outsiders will have a reason to take their places.

Small towns in the rural eastern Carolina countryside have deep local histories and many residents can trace generations of their family in the same area. These are towns with historic houses of worship; towns founded by African American freedmen and towns organized by slave-owning plantations; and communities with continuous occupation since the Ice Age. This region funded the development of our big cities through lumber, cotton and tobacco trade. Their stories continue to unfold as Latino immigrants, originally drawn to the area by farm work, set roots. There are so many pasts in these places, many marginalized by racial and cultural oppression. With climate change, these places may have histories that the rest of the world will never learn.

Rural towns in the eastern Carolinas have survived many floods. Locals—or maybe their grandparents—can use a local landmark to tell you how high the water came. They will describe the faithful labor that restored the town. The problem is that the floods are more frequent, now, likely the result of both increased development upstream and climate change. In 2015, October floods in South Carolina caused widespread flash flooding to places from Columbia to the coast. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought rising rivers to a broad swath of low-lying towns in Eastern North Carolina. A complete disaster recovery does not happen in two or three years. Many homes in these places have temporary fixes or remain unfit for living, and another round of floodwater could cause property owners to lose hope (or run out of money).

Princeville, NC, 9/16/1999: Volunteers from the Cane Creek Baptist Church support cleanup efforts following Hurricane Floyd. Photo Credit: Photo by Dave Gatley/ FEMA News Photo.

Some hazards specialists argue that rebuilding in these disaster-prone areas is folly, at least in theory. And there is truth to this point – we have limited resources and, with increasing hazards, it is unwise to continue to spend public money on recovery in places that are likely to get hit by similar disasters again. However, decisions about whether to spend money to rebuild are made in thousands of different contexts by nearly as many people, and “wise” isn’t always the first criterion. The result is happenstance and dictated as much as politics and wealth than by social, land use, or historic considerations. Because small, inland communities may not hold as much political or financial capital, they are at very high risk of shrinking off the map with repeated storms.

Yet these communities provide physical, social and spiritual homes. We owe it to those residents, and their ancestors, to have thoughtful conversations about where to rebuild and what should be left behind to nature. We also have many more resources than ever before to preserve the histories and stories of places that may succumb to climate change. We owe it to ourselves to hear, and sustain, the memories of communities most at risk from erasure due to climate change.

Featured Image: Pollocksville, NC, 09/16/1999: Residents watch rising waters from Hurricane Floyd near their town next to a boarded up local business. Photo Credit: Sgt. 1st Class Eric Wedeking/ FEMA.

About the Author: Amanda Martin, AICP, is a PhD candidate at UNC Chapel Hill. She is passionate about disaster recovery, climate resilience, and community development. Her dissertation uses a social justice lens to examine post-disaster buyouts. Amanda holds a Master in City Planning from MIT, and you can follow her tweets on these topics at @bornonland

Update 9.13: Hurricane Florence Information and Resources

September 11, 2018 / odrozd / 0 Comments

Key Points:

(1) The anticipated track of the storm has shifted south. This is a better situation for the Triangle than we have seen predicted over the last few days, but we are still expecting extreme weather. North Carolina will still be subject to flooding, storm surges, and heavy winds.

(2) The Triangle area is still at risk of flooding along rivers and ravines as well as in areas with poor draining. Check to see if your home or if the homes of family and friends are within a flood zone by looking up your address here (more tools available below). If you are in a flood risk area, plan to find alternative housing at the home of a friend or family member.

(3) It is still likely that the Triangle will experience high winds and extremely powerful gusts. Plan ahead for the possibility of losing power for multiple days.

11:00am Update from NHC Director Ken Graham

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/videos/328321911272704/

Source: NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center Facebook

Comments on Preparation from Dr. Gavin Smith:

I’m writing to all of you about the oncoming storm and a range of things you should be doing now to prepare for it. Don’t be fooled into thinking that the storm won’t impact Chapel Hill. While the track, associated winds, and rain are still uncertain, things are shaping up to be a bad combination of very strong inland winds and extreme rainfall. In some ways it looks like a combined punch we experienced in 1996 with Fran (high inland winds led to power outages of up to a week in Chapel Hill and 2 weeks in Raleigh) and Floyd which had torrential rain, inundating the eastern third of the state. Florence will have the high inland winds AND heavy rainfall as a high pressure ridge looks like it will block the storms movement once it makes landfall and rain may inundate the North Carolina Piedmont for 3 or 4 days.

Here are a few things all of you should do:

1) Pay close attention to the situation via the National Hurricane Center, Local News, and the Weather Channel.

2) Consider moving your car to an area that is safe from falling trees and branches and/or avoid being blocked in your driveway. Parking decks and parking lots are an option (OUTSIDE OF THE FLOODPLAIN) to park your car if they are protected from flying debris.

3) Check to see where your home is located relative to the 100 and 500 year floodplain (for instance, Booker Creek is notorious for flooding). This can be done by logging into the NC Flood Information Management System (FIMAN), which has aerial imagery and digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps superimposed over one another.

4) Sleep and/or hang out on a first floor if in a 2 story home (falling trees can slice through homes). If this is not an option, the center of a home or apartment is best.

5) Check out ready.gov (as suggested on the UNC website for prep tips).

6) Fill clean containers with water in case the water system goes down (I do this as opposed to buying all those plastic water bottles, which you may have seen are rapidly selling out).

7) Buy foods you don’t have to cook or refrigerate and have a manual can opener at the ready. If you have a gas stove, you’re in luck. If you have a grill, buy another propane take and grill all the stuff in your fridge before it thaws (great way to meet your neighbors). Use batteries and NOT candles as a light source.

While this may sound a bit over the top, its always better to be overprepared than the reverse. While power outages are likely to be widespread, you never know who will and won’t have power.

– Dr. Gavin Smith, Research Professor, Director of the Department of Homeland Security Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence